The rally for the past two days seems to be bringing good indications for the markets in a recovery scenario. However some key points to be kept in mind with the new September season starting are:
- The 200 week moving exponential average and the simple moving average is hovering around 4800. Last Friday the sell off indicated Nifty closing well below the long term moving average support since May 2009.
- As per the Fibonacci retrenchment for the entire period and rally between the lows of 2008 to the highs of 2010 (2252 to 6338) NSE is placed at 5000 which is about 30% retrenchment.
- The yearly low of 2010 was 4650 in the early February which is quite near to what the market is currently placed at. A breach of these levels may see a negative downturn in the markets further.
- The next support which is at the 4720 levels is about a 1000 points lower than the yearly highs of 5740 levels.
- When compared time wise a 32 week time cycle seems to be followed by the index since March 2009 where it has been observed that all the major turning points have happened after 32 weeks.